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When the Fed increases interest rates, it doesn't ripple
evenly through the economy. Different interest rate related products will behave
in different ways leading up to, and in response to, a Fed rate increase. Below
is a look at how soon each product category will reflect the Fed's Dec. 14 rate
increase.
Fixed-rate mortgages: Fixed mortgage rates are closely
tied to long-term government bond yields, and are not directly tied to Fed
interest rate moves. Look no further than the benchmark rate, the 30-year fixed
mortgage, for a case in point. The national average rate on 30-year fixed
mortgages has dropped from 6.3 percent on June 30, when the Fed first increased
interest rates this year, to 5.72 percent as of Dec. 8, the date of the last
Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders.
Fixed mortgage rates have declined despite repeated Fed rate
hikes as the economy has worked through an economic "soft patch" and
job growth has been inconsistent. Any disappointing economic data conjures
images of a Fed that will be less aggressive in raising short-term interest
rates. Although the Fed has continued to boost short-term interest rates and
inflation pressures appear to be emerging again, long-term interest rates and
mortgage rates have defied indications of higher rates. Rates could move higher
if consistent strong job growth or further declines in oil prices are seen. One
other factor that could push rates higher: if the U.S. dollar continues to drop,
leading to a decline in appetite for U.S. securities by foreign investors. Any
mass exodus from the bond market by these investors could push interest rates
significantly higher.
Adjustable-rate mortgages: Rates on ARMs are primarily
tied to short-term indices, such as the one-year
Treasury or the 11th
District Cost of Funds Index. As the Fed boosts short-term interest rates,
ARMs are far more sensitive after the fact than fixed-rate mortgages. For
borrowers facing rate adjustments, the relevant comparison is the current level
of the underlying index plus the loan's margin, vs. the initial start rate. As
short-term interest rates rise, this contrast will expand and lead to some
unpleasant rate adjustments for borrowers that took out ARMs at record-low
interest rates. Consider a one-year ARM taken out in December 2003, when the
prevailing national average was 3.9 percent. Now facing the first rate
adjustment, with the one-year Treasury yield currently 2.6 percent and a loan
margin of 2.75 percent, the rate would jump to 5.35 percent. For someone taking
out a $165,000 loan last December, the monthly payment increases by nearly $140.
Home equity loans: Rates for home equity loans are fixed,
and any changes in rates do not affect existing borrowers. Small, short-term
home equity loans are often tied to the prime
rate, which moves in close concert with Fed interest rate hikes. For these
loans, locking in rates sooner, rather than later, will insulate borrowers from
higher rates. But most borrowers taking home equity loans are borrowing a
significant amount of money and repaying it over 10 or 15 years. Rates on these
products will track more closely to long-term interest rates, much like
fixed-rate mortgages. Since Bankrate.com switched to tracking a loan amount of
$30,000 in the weekly survey on July 21, the average home equity loan rate has
dipped from 6.99 percent to 6.89 percent. Another increase in short-term
interest rates may not have an immediate impact on many fixed-rate home equity
loans, but if long-term interest rates begin to rise, then home equity loan
rates will follow.
Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs): Since Bankrate.com
switched to a $30,000 line of credit in the weekly survey on July 21, the
average HELOC rate has increased from 4.71 percent to 5.4 percent. Variable-rate
HELOCs will continue to increase for both existing and new borrowers. Lenders
will be quick to reprice HELOCs on the heels of the Fed's rate hike, with most
borrowers noticing the higher rates within one or two billing cycles. HELOC
rates will closely mimic moves in the prime
rate.
Auto loans: Rates for new- and used-car loans are
fixed-rate loans and Fed moves will not impact existing borrowers. Much of the
impact of an interest rate hike is seen before a Fed move, as car loans are
increasingly responding to yields
on Treasury securities. This is because lenders are packaging auto loans
together and selling them into the secondary market, as is often done with
mortgages. With the uneven job growth, yields on three-year Treasury securities
are only modestly higher over the past several months. As a result, car loan
rates are only slightly higher despite the Fed's repeated short-term interest
rate hikes. The average four-year new-car loan rate is currently 7.49 percent,
up from 7.43 percent on June 30. The average three-year used-car loan rate has
actually declined slightly, from 8.46 percent to 8.36 percent, since June 30.
Certificates of deposit: Yields on certificates of
deposit move with yields on Treasury
securities of a similar maturity, as they compete for the same investment
dollars. Longer-term CDs, such as the five-year CD, move further in advance than
a short-term CD, such as the three-month CD. Yields on three-month and six-month
CDs increase in closer concert with actual Fed moves, and have been increasing
steadily since the first rate hike on June 30. The average three-month and
six-month CD yields are now 1.32 percent and 1.61 percent, up from 0.89 percent
and 1.08 percent, respectively, on June 30. Just as fixed-mortgage rates move
independently of the Fed's handling of short-term interest rates, so too do
yields on many CDs. After a sharp increase between March and July, yields on
five-year CDs fell from 3.62 percent to as low as 3.48 percent in November due
to the uncertain economic climate. More recently, five-year CD yields have
rebounded slightly, to 3.53 percent. Should the economy exhibit evidence of
consistent job growth, the yields on longer maturities such as the five-year
could climb in a more significant fashion.
Money market accounts (MMAs): Yields on money market
accounts are closely tied to what the Fed does with short-term interest rates.
But not all banks will be eager to reward depositors with better returns. The
largest banks that dominate in many markets around the country have been very
stingy about increasing money market payouts. As a result, the average money
market account yield has shown scant improvement since June, rising from 0.45
percent to 0.52 percent. For the best returns, see Bankrate.com's highest-yielding
money market accounts, where banks are more apt to pass along higher yields
to investors soon after the Fed meeting.
Money market mutual funds (MMMFs): Yields on money market
funds have been increasing steadily since the June 30 Fed rate hike and will
continue to do so on the heels of a fifth rate hike on Dec. 14. It may take
nearly three months before a rate hike is completely reflected in money fund
yields as short-term investments within the fund mature and are then reinvested
at the now higher rates. Even though money fund yields have been increasing
since the Fed started boosting short-term rates in June, the best-yielding money
market mutual funds still fall far short of the highest-yielding bank money
market deposit accounts.
Credit cards: Variable-rate credit cards will move in
direct response to Fed interest rate action, as most are tied to the prime rate.
Some cards were immune from the initial interest rate hikes because they had
previously hit floor rates, but with the repeated interest rate increases they
are now rising. There can be a lag of up to three months between an interest
rate hike and a credit card repricing. However, rates are quicker to rise than
to fall. From the Fed's first interest rate hike on June 30 to the fourth rate
hike on Nov. 10, the average standard variable rate increased from 13.53 percent
to 14.34 percent. Following a significant change in the cards surveyed the
following week, the average rate subsequently declined, clouding the comparison.
Even fixed-rate credit cards are potentially sensitive to rising rates, as
issuers can change the rate with as little as 15 days' notice. Issuers tend to
reprice fixed-rate cards in response to a series of interest rate hikes rather
than after each individual change. Although the average fixed-rate card is about
the same as in June, some issuers have switched fixed-rate cards to
variable-rate. Fixed-rate credit cards are not a haven from higher rates.
By • Bankrate.com
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